First Quarter | 2024

Across much of the world, populations are shrinking. A study in The Lancet projects that 23 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Spain, will see their populations halve by 2100. We give little weight to the precision of forecasts like these, but the trend is unambiguous. Even Finland and Sweden, which offer some of the world's most generous parental support, recorded all-time low fertility rates in 2023. Lifting birth rates through policy is hard, and increasing immigration is politically unpopular, so most countries choose flat or declining populations instead. Dubai is the exception. With less than 10% of its population made up of UAE nationals, Dubai's reliance on expatriates is unique among major global cities, and its 2040 Urban Master Plan targets growth from 3.3 million to 5.8 million, a 2.9% annual rate in a world where most countries are struggling to maintain their population size. Because Dubai depends on net migration rather than fertility, small shifts in migration matter. India and China have a combined population of 2.8 billion people; even modest changes in migration from either country would have an outsized effect on a city of 4 million. If Dubai's population growth exceeds government forecasts, many listed UAE companies stand to benefit, something we monitor closely.